Table 2 Global climate models (GCMs) used in this study

BCCR.BCM20

1

1

1

Norway

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway

CCMA.CGCM3.1_T47

2

2

2

Canada

Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

CCMA.CGCM3.1_T63

3

3

Canada

Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

CCMA.CGCM3.1_T

4

4

3

France

Meteo–France/Centre National de Research Meteorologiques

CSIRO.MK30

5

5

4

Australia

Australian Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organisation

CSIRO.MK35

6

6

5

Australia

Australian Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organisation

GFDL.CM20

7

7

6

USA

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GFDL.CM21

8

8

7

USA

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GISS.AOM

9

9

USA

NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies

GISS.EH

10

USA

NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies

GISS.ER

11

10

8

USA

NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies

IAP.FGOALS_g10

12

11

China

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

INGV.ECHAM4

13

9

Italy

National Institute of geophysics and volcanology Italy

INM.CM30

14

12

10

Russia

Institute for Numerical Mathematics

IPSL.CM4

15

13

11

France

Insitut Pierre–Simon Laplace

MIROC3.2_hires

16

14

Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan

MIROC3.2_medres

17

15

12

Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan

MIUB.ECHO_G

18

16

13

Germany

Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn

MIUB.ECHAM5

19

17

14

Germany

Max–Planck–Institut fur Meteorologie

MRI.CGCM2.3.2

20

18

15

Japan

Meteorological Research Institute

NCAR.CCSM3

20

19

16

USA

National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCAR.PCM

22

20

17

USA

National Center for Atmospheric Research

UKMO.HadCM3

23

21

18

UK

UK Met. Office,UK

UKMO.HadGEM1

24

19

UK

UK Met. Office,UK