Table 2 Sensitivity analysis in the light of economic change
From: Assessing vulnerability and adaptation strategy of the cyclone affected coastal area of Bangladesh
1. Sector | 2. Sub-sector | Sensitivity Scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3. Before event situation | 4. After event situation | 5. How the changes currently affect this sub-sector | 6. Basis of analysis | 7. Projected impact of possible changes | 8. Degree of System Sensitivity to EC | ||
Economy | Change in population structure | Working and independent population was more than dependent | Working and independent population is reduced | Unemployed and Dependent population has increased | From surveyed data analysis | Number of women, child and aged people will be increased may bring social insecurity and economic insolvency | Moderate |
Change in occupation | Majority people was involved with fishing and agricultural activities | A number of people has diverted to day labour | The change has brought economic insolvency | From surveyed data analysis | More people may change their occupation from agricultural activities and fishing | Moderate | |
Income | Most of the people ‘s monthly income was from 63 to 126 USD | Most of the people’s monthly income has been increased in limited amount | - Quality of life has decreased - Money related matter is negatively affected created a rank-down socio-economic livelihood environment | From surveyed data analysis | - Income may not increase soon - Quality of life may not improve soon - Economic situation of the area have chance to be challenged for the stakeholders | Severe | |
Expenditure capacity | Most of the people’s monthly expenditure was from 38 to 76 USD | As like before Aila almost same expenditure capacity was found in all study villages | Expenditures for food, cloth, treatment and others has become narrow down creating insufficient calorie intake, treatment, clothing and others things | From surveyed data analysis | Reduce in expenditure capacity may reduce the minimum intake of basic needs for long time | Sever | |
Savings | Most of the people’s monthly savings was less than 12.65 USD. A remarkable portion people’s saving was from 12.65 to 25.00 USD after Aila | Apparently most of the people’s savings have changed to subsequent next level. But in terms of inflation it is lower than before Aila | Low savings has decreased investment capacity which effects income and expenditure capacity It also decreased capacity of investment to improve living standard | From surveyed data analysis | In near future poor savings will not be able to contribute in the economic development of the area | Severe | |
Housing structure | - More than 90% houses of all villages were katcha - Very few were Semi-pucca and Pucca | -Katcha houses have converted into either Semi-pucca or Pucca houses - Conversion rate in Chakbara and Patakhali is high but in Sora is very limited | In economic perspective this change is positive even to adaptation capacity but this change is not made by own income. Because different GOs and NGOs facilitated the affected stakeholders | From surveyed data analysis | This change will enhance the adaptive capacity of the people | Positive in case of adaptive capacity | |
Drinking water | Almost all the people of Sora village drunk pond water In Chakbara 100% people drunk rain water for eight months and pond water for rest of the months of the year But in Patakhali 95.31% people drunk tube well water | Same situation is found in Sora village but scarcity has increased because one pond out of two is contaminated by saline water which was washed away by cyclone surges In Chakbara same situation is found in drinking water but water scarcity has increased But in Patakhali nothing change is found in drinking water | People of Sora village are severely affected by water borne diseases like diarrhea, typhoid, hepatitis etc In Chakbara situation is almost same but scarcity has increased In Patakhali, in the meantime the damaging situation has recovered | From surveyed data analysis | Water born disease may increase in Sora and Patakhali village. If amount of rainfall decrease the drinking water scarcity will increase in Sora and Chakbara villages. But in Patakhali drinking water scarcity may not be more severe like other two villages | Moderate | |
Land use | Productive land such as water bodies, aquaculture, agricultural land and vegetation was more than productive such as settlement, bare land, tidal area | Productive land has reduced and unproductive land has increased | Less production insists low quality of life status reduced adaptation capacity enhanced vulnerability | From surveyed data analysis | Long term less production may reduce the adaptation capacity and increase more vulnerability | Severe | |
Agricultural land use | Number of small piece of land cultivators was more than the big piece of land cultivator | Number of big piece of land cultivators has increased and small piece of land cultivators has decreased | Small farmers becoming economically weaker | From surveyed data analysis | Number of small farmers will be increased and they will be weaker economically | Severe | |
Land ownership | 40.70% people of Sora, 51.67% people of Chakbara and 100% people of Patakhali had land ownership | Landlessness has increased in the study area except Chakbara village | Due to loss of land people becoming economically vulnerable | From surveyed data analysis | Landlessness may increase in future and people may be more vulnerable economically | Severe | |