Comprehensive study of thunderstorm indices threshold favorable for thunderstorms during monsoon season using WRF–ARW model and ERA5 over India

Mondal, Unashish; Kumar, Anish; Panda, S. K.; Sharma, Devesh; Das, Someshwar

doi:10.1186/s40677-023-00262-5

Geoenvironmental Disasters

Table 7 Threshold values and skill scores of thunderstorm indices for event time, 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC over Udaipur, Rajasthan

From: Comprehensive study of thunderstorm indices threshold favorable for thunderstorms during monsoon season using WRF–ARW model and ERA5 over India

Index	19 UTC								00 UTC								12 UTC
Index	Threshold	ACC	POD	FAR	ETS	CSI	TSS	HSS	Threshold	ACC	POD	FAR	ETS	CSI	TSS	HSS	Threshold	ACC	POD	FAR	ETS	CSI	TSS	HSS
CAPE	≥ 1300	0.71	0.26	0.85	0.01	0.1	0.04	0.03	≥ 800	0.8	0.42	0.6	0.17	0.25	0.3	0.29	≥ 1100	0.63	0.61	0.66	0.11	0.27	0.25	0.19
KI	≥ 30	0.93	0.94	0.01	0.18	0.93	0.47	0.3	≥ 35	0.84	0.92	0.1	0.21	0.83	0.32	0.35	≥ 31	0.93	0.94	0.01	0.19	0.93	0.5	0.32
CT	≥ 19	0.62	0.63	0.13	0.08	0.57	0.22	0.16	≥ 19	0.66	0.58	0.09	0.21	0.54	0.44	0.35	≥ 19	0.49	0.42	0.11	0.06	0.4	0.2	0.11
VT	≥ 24	0.91	0.93	0.15	0.7	0.79	0.84	0.82	≥ 25	0.91	0.93	0.25	0.63	0.71	0.84	0.77	≥ 24	0.89	0.94	0.19	0.65	0.77	0.81	0.78
TTI	≥ 44	0.82	0.83	0.44	0.38	0.49	0.66	0.55	≥ 44	0.83	0.78	0.57	0.29	0.37	0.62	0.46	≥ 44	0.79	0.84	0.52	0.31	0.43	0.62	0.47
DEW	≥ 21	0.77	0.76	0	0.12	0.76	0.76	0.22	≥ 23	0.37	0.35	0	0.01	0.35	0.35	0.03	≥ 21	0.75	0.72	0.01	0.24	0.71	0.66	0.39
POT	≤ -56	0.76	0.75	0.03	0.24	0.73	0.61	0.39	≤ -48	0.83	0.59	0.15	0.42	0.53	0.54	0.59	≤ -58	0.8	0.85	0.07	0.17	0.79	0.36	0.3
EHI	≥ 0.5	0.81	0.64	0.57	0.25	0.34	0.41	0.4	≥ 0.5	0.88	0.31	0.79	0.1	0.14	0.23	0.18	≥ 0.5	0.85	0.45	0.74	0.14	0.19	0.34	0.45
SCP	≥ 1	0.88	0.55	0.49	0.3	0.36	0.48	0.46	≥ 0.5	0.84	0.44	0.61	0.19	0.25	0.34	0.32	≥ 0.5	0.81	0.49	0.5	0.24	0.33	0.38	0.38
STP	≥ − 0.1	0.82	0.83	0.01	0.04	0.82	0.38	0.08	≥ − 0.1	0.84	0.84	0	0	0.84	NA	NA	≥ − 0.1	0.81	0.81	0.006	0	0.81	− 0.18	− 0.01
SRH	≥ 60	0.79	0.75	0.27	0.39	0.58	0.57	0.56	≥ 70	0.75	0.61	0.29	0.3	0.49	0.46	0.47	≥ 70	0.82	0.6	0.5	0.28	0.37	0.48	0.44
DLS	≥ 15	0.9	0.84	0.61	0.31	0.35	0.74	0.48	≥ 16	0.97	0.92	0.6	0.36	0.38	0.89	0.53	≥ 15	0.94	0.87	0.49	0.44	0.47	0.82	0.61
LLS	≥ 7	0.87	0.59	0.34	0.38	0.45	0.53	0.55	≥ 7.5	0.88	0.42	0.78	0.13	0.16	0.33	0.23	≥ 7	0.97	0.24	0.73	0.13	0.14	0.23	0.24
PLCL	≥ 860	0.75	0.68	0.01	0.32	0.67	0.65	0.49	≥ 920	0.83	0.63	0.04	0.47	0.61	0.6	0.64	≥ 940	0.95	0.52	0.12	0.46	0.48	0.51	0.63

The optimal threshold of the thunderstorm indices, highlighted in bold, at a specific time

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